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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Things
Automatic
Influenced
Completely
Control
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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