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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
True
Prolonged
Good
Expertise
Feedback
Intuitive
Mistakes
Learned
Mistake
Experience

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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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