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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Probably
Doesn
Take
Many
Spotted
Think
Observations
Thinking
Trend
Trends
Observation

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
Daniel Kahneman
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Daniel Kahneman
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
Daniel Kahneman
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
Daniel Kahneman
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
Daniel Kahneman
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
Daniel Kahneman
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
Daniel Kahneman
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
Daniel Kahneman
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
Daniel Kahneman
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
Daniel Kahneman
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
Daniel Kahneman
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
Daniel Kahneman
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
Daniel Kahneman
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
Daniel Kahneman
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
Daniel Kahneman
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
Daniel Kahneman
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
Daniel Kahneman
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
Daniel Kahneman
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
Daniel Kahneman
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
Daniel Kahneman