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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Probably
Doesn
Take
Many
Spotted
Think
Observations
Thinking
Trend
Trends
Observation
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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