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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Thinking
Trend
Trends
Observation
Probably
Doesn
Take
Many
Spotted
Think
Observations
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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