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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Taking
Style
Successes
Littles
Failures
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Optimistic
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Essence
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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