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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Littles
Failures
Little
Involves
Optimistic
Credit
Blame
Essence
Taking
Style
Successes
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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