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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Littles
Failures
Little
Involves
Optimistic
Credit
Blame
Essence
Taking
Style
Successes

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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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