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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Blame
Essence
Taking
Style
Successes
Littles
Failures
Little
Involves
Optimistic
Credit
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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