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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Never
Fewer
Rising
Market
Pay
Learn
Ideas
Enough

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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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