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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Ideas
Enough
Never
Fewer
Rising
Market
Pay
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More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
Daniel Kahneman
