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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Always
Emphasized
Discard
Willingness

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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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