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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Bias
Surprise
Makes
Hindsight
Vanish
Surprises

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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There is a huge wave of interest in happiness among researchers. There is a lot of happiness coaching. Everybody would like to make people happier.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
Daniel Kahneman
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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