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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Hindsight
Vanish
Surprises
Bias
Surprise
Makes

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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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