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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Makes
Hindsight
Vanish
Surprises
Bias
Surprise

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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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