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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Hindsight
Vanish
Surprises
Bias
Surprise
Makes

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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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