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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Seems
Substantial
Adaptation
Extent
Attention
Process
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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