Quote

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

Daniel Kahneman

Change background

T
T
T

Change font

TAGS & TOPICS

Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Example
Picking
Possible
Strategic
Term
Monkeys
Political
Domain
Forecasting
Better
Shown
Domains
Long
Stock
Monkey
Good
Throwing
Dice
Experts
Expertise

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

Image
A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Laziness is built deep into our nature.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
Daniel Kahneman
Image
The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
Daniel Kahneman