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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Invested
Importance
Decision
Effort
Getting
Right
Commensurate

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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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