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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Commensurate
Invested
Importance
Decision
Effort
Getting
Right

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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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