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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Columnists
Pundits
Rewarded
Sports
Political

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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