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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Columnists
Pundits
Rewarded
Sports
Political

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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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Below an income of ... $60,000 a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. ... Money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
Daniel Kahneman