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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Columnists
Pundits
Rewarded
Sports
Political

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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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