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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Columnists
Pundits
Rewarded
Sports
Political

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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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